News & Insights

The bill has seemingly come due for the Federal Reserve’s mistaken belief inflation was “transitory.”  A late start in tightening policy to combat inflation led to the fastest rate hikes in forty years, and it should come as no huge surprise the stress from such a move might break something. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”), the 16th largest bank in the U.S., was the headline casualty, but Signature Bank was also shut down by regulators and the impact was evident across the sector, notably regional banks where share prices declined sharply.

Given the potential for widespread market disruption, regulators stepped in with a package of emergency measures to calm fears among depositors and help prevent contagion. The actions taken brought back unwelcome memories of the financial crisis. The government announced the FDIC would guarantee all deposits held at SVB and Signature Bank, even those beyond the $250,000 limit, by invoking a “systemic risk exception.”

The year is off to a better start for equities than many expected following a difficult 2022 when aggressive rate hikes to counter inflation weighed on sentiment. The move higher for stocks in 2023 has been prompted by the expectation that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle as inflation retreats from its recent peak. Combine that with optimism regarding a reopening in China and a resilient labor market in the U.S., increasing hopes for a “soft landing” for the economy, and the move higher for equities is understandable.

To battle persistently high inflation the Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate by 4.5% since last March, to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. This represents the fastest pace of rate increases since the 1980s with the intention of cooling off the economy to bring down inflation. The tagline the Fed uses is that its policy operates with long and variable lags, but still, its efforts have not yet had quite the bite many expected.

Last summer, there was a brief wave of optimism among investors that the Federal Reserve’s pattern of interest rate hikes would be short-lived.  It was illogical given rampant inflation, but investors could let their imaginations wander during the lengthy eight-week lull between the Fed’s July meeting and its September meeting.  However, midway through the lull the Fed became concerned investors weren’t getting the message, using the annual “Jackson Hole (WY)” monetary policy conference in late August to reiterate its determination to raise rates until inflation is back to its 2% objective.  Investors got the message and stock and bond prices wilted for about a month and a half afterward.

A greater disconnect between markets and the Fed emerged after markets bottomed in mid-October, persisting even in the face of two more Fed meetings that resulted in rate hikes.  Notes from its November meeting indicate Fed governors raised their terminal Fed Funds rate in this tightening cycle compared to their consensus after the previous meeting.  Markets initially flinched on this news, but quickly resumed their ascent.

No year is without surprises. As we look back at 2022, probably the two most disruptive surprises were Russia’s war in Ukraine and the persistence of Covid lockdowns in China. Both caused complicated knock-on effects for the global economy. Embargoes on Russian imports stressed European energy markets and briefly caused oil and gas prices to spike worldwide. That Russian energy did not disappear, it just got rerouted, and energy commodities have pulled back significantly, although regional prices can vary compared to global averages.

Chinese demand for imports has dropped, while its export machine continues to hum despite the lockdowns. China’s balance of trade (exports minus imports) has risen to new highs. Chinese companies reselling cheap Russian energy at a markup may exaggerate this statistic.

The stock market continues to be driven on a daily basis by the outlook for interest rates. Data suggesting inflation is easing or the economy is slowing is favorably received by stock investors who are looking for, or more precisely hoping for, signs the Federal Reserve is ending its aggressive rate hikes. Every speech from Fed Governors is scrutinized for these signs.

We saw a similar pattern during the summer, but it didn’t last. Some investors didn’t believe the Fed would continue raising rates by three-quarters of a percent each month past the first couple of months. Traditional rate hikes are typically one-quarter or one-half percentage point per month, but this time the Fed started very late and attempted to make up for lost time. Summer optimism is easier to perpetuate because the Fed doesn’t meet in August, allowing investor sentiment to go off on a tangent without a reality check. But Fed Governors saw this market optimism and in mid-August doused it with a bucket of ice water, sending stocks down to new lows by the middle of October.

Despite the Federal Reserve enacting the most aggressive interest rate hikes since the 1980s, inflation continues to run near 40-year highs. In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose a greater-than-expected 8.2% from the prior year, and 0.4% from the prior month. The annual increase was down slightly from 8.3% in August and 9.1% in June, which marked the highest inflation in 40 years. The “core” measure of inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 6.6%, accelerating from August and representing the largest increase since 1982. This was not welcome news, as the Fed had hoped more restrictive policy would have had a greater impact. Instead, inflation remains well north of the Fed’s 2% target.

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), is also running well ahead of its long-term target, rising 6.2% in August, which is the most recently available data. This is down slightly from July, but the core measure jumped to 4.9% from 4.7% the prior month.

In the wake of lockdowns and restrictions that throttled the services sector, the U.S. economy in 2022 needs to return to form without aid from the fiscal and monetary stimulus that carried many consumers and businesses through the pandemic. The data has been volatile and sometimes contradictory. GDP contracted -0.6% in the second quarter, markedly better than the first quarter’s revised change of -1.6%. Unemployment ticked higher to 3.7% in August, but for the best possible reason—employers hired at a rapid pace while workers came off the sidelines and returned to the workforce even faster. Labor force participation has remained stubbornly below its pre-pandemic average, causing fears of a permanently lower equilibrium. Those fears may be overblown.

Inflation has slowed thanks to retreating energy prices. After a flat July, August’s CPI report showed a 0.1% month-over-month increase. The uptick dashed hopes that the CPI would politely roll over and recede back to its old normal. Energy declined 5% month-over-month but remains up 24% in the last twelve months. Food costs rose 0.8% and are up more than 11% in the last twelve months, their fastest annual increase since May 1979. Core inflation outside of energy and food was 6.3% for the 12 months ending August. The report all but ensures another 0.75% interest rate increase at the next Federal Reserve meeting. Interest rates rose and stocks fell. The U.S. dollar strengthened apace.

Timing the market is futile. Recall March 9, 2009. Unemployment was skyrocketing, large banks like National City and Washington Mutual had been shut down, and GM and Chrysler were teetering on the edge of bankruptcy and threatening to take down the whole automotive supply chain with them. Things were bad and more bad news was ahead of us. What a foolish time to invest in stocks! Yet, that was the bottom. Why? Because the sellers had finished their selling. However, they don’t issue memos to let others know it is okay to invest again. But from that point, in fits and starts, the market recovered. Eventually, the economy recovered as well.

The stock market hit its recent low on June 17th with the Dow dipping below 30,000 and the S&P 500 reaching 3,636. Since then, stocks have staged a significant rebound despite negative sentiment in the business and investing communities. At recent quotes, the Dow and S&P have risen 13% and 18%, respectively, from their June lows but remain 8% and 11% below their all-time highs. The tech-heavy NASDAQ, once down 35%, has rebounded 24% but is still down 19% from its high.

These days being an investor takes fortitude. Since the start of 2022 stocks and bonds have each generated double-digit losses, upending the conventional wisdom that when stocks fall bonds rise, cushioning the blow to an overall portfolio. Further, elevated inflation levels not seen since the 1970s erode the value of holding cash and further exacerbate stock and bond market losses.

The economy continues to produce mixed signals regarding whether it will enter recession. Because the stock market looks ahead 6-9 months, its bear market performance has endorsed the recession argument. Further, after the Fourth of July the bond market joined the recession camp as the 2-year bond yield surpassed the 10-year rate to create an inverted yield curve. These stock and bond market signals haven’t always led to recession, but the odds now seem better than 50/50.

There are mixed signals as to whether or not the economy will soon enter recessionary territory, but the odds appear to be rising with every week that passes. The stock market seems to be screaming “yes,” but economic statistics are saying, “Whoa, not so fast.” The difference is that the stock market looks forward about six to nine months while economic stats reflect the past.

Retail sales increased for four straight months through April, though they took a step back in May. Likewise, industrial production has risen for four straight months. The Purchasing Managers Index reflects activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, and remains strong in both the U.S. and Europe, although it is down slightly from recent months. Yet, confidence surveys of consumers and small businesses are in the tank.