Stocks were already trading near all-time highs prior to the election, after which markets took another leg higher. Overall, equities have been supported this year as the economy has held up better than many expected following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases to combat inflation. A combination of inflation tracking back towards the Fed’s 2% target and concerns about a softer labor market set the table for the Fed to kick off an easing cycle in September with a larger 0.5% cut, its first rate reduction in four years. Beginning the path toward less restrictive policy while consensus expectations reflect projected earnings growth of nearly 10% in 2024 and approximately 15% in 2025 make a relatively attractive backdrop for equities, helping to explain some of the bullish sentiment exhibited by investors.
The Fed continued down the path toward easier policy with a 0.25% cut in November with expectations for another 0.25% reduction in December. Market expectations are for an additional 0.50% of easing in 2025, which should help support equities. Additional rate cuts meaningfully beyond that over the coming year would likely be in response to unwelcome economic or geopolitical developments.
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